In fact, 2023 was a near-historic year with a surge in aircraft purchases, including during the Dubai Airshow with Emirates ordering 95 Boeing and 15 Airbus planes, Air Baltic firming 30 additional A220-300s and Turkish Airlines signing a momentous deal for 220 Airbus aircraft in December. As reported in November, these deals are part of a record -breaking 2,370 aircraft orders placed with the two manufacturers in 2023.

As this year’s activity shows, there is industry-wide confidence in the future, with travel now back to pre-pandemic levels. This trend is likely to continue, even if demand might dampen slightly in response to a recession forecast in the US in the first half of 2024.

While the confidence on display is good news for the industry, it also poses challenges to airlines as we move into 2024. If demand remains high, securing new planes could prove difficult as order backlogs for Airbus and Boeing hit record highs of almost 14,000 to the end of October, according to data from aviation consultancy Cirium.

Expanding horizons

For airlines facing challenges in acquiring the necessary aircraft, the pre-owned market presents a compelling solution, offering not only significant cost savings but also a broader range.

Outside the pre-owned market, smaller airlines are increasingly looking beyond Airbus and Boeing at other manufacturers, with Porter Airlines placing an order for 25 Embraer E195-E2 passenger jets – in addition to 50 existing firm orders – in November.

At Jetcraft Commercial, we’ve been supporting a range of regional and startup airlines via the pre-owned market globally, including in Central Asia, Africa and the Americas.

Notable examples in 2023 include our acquisition of three ATR72-600 aircraft from Bangkok Airways, which we delivered to Uzbekistan Airports to be placed with the country’s new community airline, SilkAvia, to facilitate connections to remote communities.

We have also responded to high demand for Dash 8-400 turboprops by finalizing multiple deals to buy and sell the aircraft worldwide. Equally, we’ve closed an important launch order for Twin Otter 300G.

The power of our network has also enabled us to facilitate more complex transactions, helping turn aircraft grounded by the pandemic – which required upgraded engines – into valuable assets.

For regional and startup airlines, identifying opportunities within the pre-owned market will prove key to responding to the travel recovery in 2024. When considering aircraft to purchase, airlines should also take careful consideration when placing long term orders due to ongoing manufacturer delays.

It is essential for airlines to factor these extended timelines into their strategic planning to ensure seamless operations and timely fleet expansion, as well as closely monitoring industry trends and production capabilities.

Looking ahead

There are plenty of reasons for the commercial aviation sector to be optimistic as we head in to 2024. While the surge in demand also brings its own challenges, these can mostly be managed through a deep understanding of the market, an extensive network and full visibility of global aircraft availability. As industry experts, Jetcraft Commercial is on hand to navigate our clients through market developments ahead of another busy 2024 and beyond.

Seizing the opportunities that exist in the African commercial aviation industry means being fully aware of – and being prepared to respond to – the developing trends and the challenges that exist across the regions.

Recession prompts growth in regional aircraft

It’s perhaps surprising to talk about opportunities given that the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) has predicted that the continent’s airlines will lose revenues of $4.9bn this year as the industry struggles to recover from Covid-19. Despite this, disruption leading to recession doesn’t necessarily lead to inactivity. Instead, a downturn shapes the prospects that exist. For commercial aviation, a recession creates a spike in demand for smaller aircraft offering the lowest risk, typically regional turboprops and jets as well as narrowbody aircraft.

Across the continent, we are seeing a particularly strong interest in some of the turboprop models – with more fuel-efficient aircraft offering better solutions for domestic operations. This is especially the case for customers who plan to fly to remote destinations.

Challenges faced by Africa

Alongside the many developments across Africa, there are also challenges that hold back the potential of aviation across the continent. Africa’s airlines face significant costs imposed on them by governments, fuel is up to 40% more expensive than elsewhere in the world, accessing financing can be difficult, and with no open-skies agreement regionally or across the continent, growth via route connectivity is stifled.

Additionally, even before the pandemic, the airline analytics consultancy OAG noted that the sheer number of airlines operating in Africa posed a challenge, preventing each airline from building a solid base and financial and structural core to survive in the face of competition and new entrants.

However, the market is shifting quickly, and the pandemic has caused the demise of some  airlines in the region, bringing about consolidation.

Planning for the future

Despite the headwinds airlines face, we see a bright future for the African commercial aviation industry, with growing demand across the continent.

While the short-term future of aviation is unpredictable, the sector has always been resilient, and we can expect good things from the African market over the coming years. One development we are watching closely is the potential for the Single Market for Air Transport in Africa (SAATM), with a pilot program being launched this November. Fourteen countries will take part, and we believe it is potentially the first big step in the right direction to advance the liberalization of civil aviation in Africa and give impetus to the continent’s economic integration agenda.

For these, and all African airlines moving forward, it will be important to collaborate with expert partners, with the right combination of heritage, local knowledge and access to data to provide genuinely trusted advice. It’s this expert insight that we pride ourselves on at Jetcraft. Our commercial aviation team has been operating in Africa, particularly trading regional and narrowbody aircraft, since 2015. Our diverse offering includes jets from Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, De Havilland, Embraer and other manufacturers. To find out more about how Jetcraft Commercial can help you seize opportunities in the African aviation sector, visit: jetcraft.com/commercial.